FRED // FINDINGS // evidence first, theories second

WHAT DOES THE
RECORD SAY?

Fred Findings are cross-archive investigations built from AlienBox evidence. Each one separates what the record establishes, what it suggests, what contradicts it, and what remains unknown.
What's Actually Happening? →Research →
Published after evidence validation + editorial review

FRED FINDINGS

FINDING #1SUPPORTED29% assessment confidence

Washington, D.C. 1952: What does the record actually support?

The Washington, D.C., July 19–20, 1952 record establishes that pilots and radar operators reported multiple unidentified returns and lights over and near sensitive parts of the capital, with some reported visual-radar corresponden...

Fred // current assessmentESTABLISHED: The packet documents a significant, multi-source radar-and-visual incident over Washington, D.C., involving reported lights, radar returns, and observations near National Airport, the White House, and the Ca...
2 cited records // 3 documentsOpen Finding →
FINDING #2INSUFFICIENT54% assessment confidence

Roswell: documented record versus later lore

The packet contains no Roswell-specific sighting, document, witness statement, debris analysis, recovery record, or official investigation. It therefore cannot directly support any Roswell claim. Several supplied records show that...

Fred // current assessmentINSUFFICIENT: No Roswell claim is directly supported by the supplied AlienBox evidence. Claims of a crash or landing, recovered non-human craft, bodies, unusual debris, military retrieval, a government cover-up, or techn...
15 cited records // 11 documentsOpen Finding →
FINDING #3SUPPORTED54% assessment confidence

Radar + visual cases: how much does independent corroboration matter?

SUPPORTED — In the supplied AlienBox records, visual reports sometimes coincide with radar, TCAS, flight-tracking, photographic, or other sensor information. That combination generally strengthens the record that something was obs...

Fred // current assessmentThe evidence shows a mixed pattern. Several cases contain apparent visual-sensor correlation, including military radar/aircrew reports, pilot observations with radar tracks, and civilian observations matched to aircraft...
27 cited records // 26 documentsOpen Finding →
FINDING #5SUPPORTED66% assessment confidence

What does “unidentified” actually mean in government records?

Across the supplied government-source records, “unresolved” or “unidentified” is primarily an evidence-status finding: investigators could not reliably determine what was observed, or could not establish a satisfactory explanation...

Fred // current assessmentESTABLISHED: An unresolved or unidentified classification establishes that the reported phenomenon or event was not identified to the agency’s evidentiary standard, or that the available information was insufficient for...
32 cited records // 31 documentsOpen Finding →
FINDING #6SUPPORTED46% assessment confidence

The strongest unresolved cases in the current archive

The strongest current AlienBox candidates are sighting 238 (AF3532 near Coulommiers), sighting 620 (Évreux), sighting 11 (Trenton), and sighting 18 (Chitose). They combine relatively strong source provenance with trained or multip...

Fred // current assessmentSUPPORTED: The strongest combination in the supplied packet is found in four cases: 238, 620, 11, and 18. Sighting 238 is the strongest all-round candidate because it has an official GEIPAN primary record, multiple aircr...
13 cited records // 11 documentsOpen Finding →
FINDING #7SUPPORTED50% assessment confidence

What explains the most UFO reports?

SUPPORTED: In this packet, satellite-related explanations account for the largest identifiable share of resolved cases. Starlink trains and flares dominate, with additional cases attributed to Qianfan satellites, older satellites,...

Fred // current assessmentSUPPORTED: Satellite-related phenomena are the leading conventional explanation in the supplied resolved-case set. The packet contains at least 19 cases attributed to satellite flares, satellite trains, satellite passage...
54 cited records // 52 documentsOpen Finding →
FINDING #8SUPPORTED46% assessment confidence

The non-human intelligence hypothesis: what evidence actually bears on it?

The corpus contains multiple unresolved reports involving apparent acceleration, abrupt direction changes, silent movement, unusual shapes, and occasional radar or visual correlations. These records materially bear on the non-huma...

Fred // current assessmentINSUFFICIENT: The present corpus does not support a reliable conclusion that any reported phenomenon was produced by non-human intelligence. It does support the narrower finding that some observations remain unidentified...
45 cited records // 41 documentsOpen Finding →
FINDING #4INSUFFICIENT50% assessment confidence

Pilot reports: are they materially different?

The packet does not establish a material difference between pilot reports and the broader public corpus. Pilot cases do show aviation-specific corroboration—TCAS, airborne or air-traffic radar, crew reports, and flight-path data—b...

Fred // current assessmentINSUFFICIENT: The supplied records support the narrower finding that pilot reports sometimes have distinctive access to aviation sensors and multiple crew witnesses, but they do not demonstrate that pilot reports materia...
45 cited records // 42 documentsOpen Finding →
FRED FINDINGS METHOD // Findings use only evidence supplied by AlienBox's public evidence corpus. Lore can inspire a question but cannot establish an answer. "Unidentified" is not treated as a synonym for extraterrestrial or non-human. Published findings pass evidence-reference validation and an AlienBox editorial review gate before indexing.